Tendency to overestimate their own skill relative to others (the Of control (e.g., Langer, 1975 Langer & Roth, 1975), people’s
Griffin, & Ross, 1994 Kahneman & Tversky, 1979), the illusion Griffin, 2003 Buehler, Griffin, & MacDonald, 1997 Buehler, Unrealistic optimism about risk is often viewed as but oneĪspect of a more general self-enhancement bias that also encompasses phenomena such as the planning fallacy (e.g., Buehler & Evidence hasīeen found in support of cognitive mediators of the effect as well asįor the contention that the effect results from a self-serving motivational bias designed to protect self-esteem and guard against depression (for reviews, see Chambers & Windschitl, 2004 Helweg-Larsen Potential mediators of the unrealistic optimism effect. Not only has the basic finding of unrealistic optimism been replicated in many studies, but there has also been detailed investigation of Is essential for the effective communication of health information. To say, a clear understanding of the psychology of risk perception They underestimate their chances of contracting disease. Take the necessary preventative steps to protect themselves because Researchers and practitioners are concerned that people will not Weinstein, 1999, 2000 Weinstein & Klein, 1996 Welkenhuysen,Įvers-Kiebooms, Decruyenaere, & van den Berghe, 1996).
Lee, 2000 Lek & Bishop, 1995 Rothman & Kiviniemi, 1999 vanĭer Velde, Hooykas, & van der Pligt, 1992 van der Velde & vanĭer Pligt, 1991 van der Velde, van der Pligt, & Hooykas, 1994 Psychology (e.g., Cohn, Macfarlane, Yanez, & Imai, 1995 Gerrard, Gibbons, Benthin, & Hessling, 1996 Gerrard, Gibbons, &īushman, 1996 Hampson, Andrews, Barckley, Lichtenstein, & The sizeable literature relating to the phenomenon within health Pertaining to risk perception and risk behavior, as documented by Keywords: wishful thinking, response scale bias, probability estimates, human rationality Optimistic bias about risk and implies that to the extent that such a bias exists, we know considerably lessĪbout its magnitude, mechanisms, and moderators than previously assumed. WeĬonclude that the presence of such statistical artifacts raises questions over the very existence of an People’s comparative risk judgments are plagued by the statistical consequences of sampling constraintsĪnd the response scales used, in combination with the comparative rarity of truly negative events. Specifically, we show how extant data from unrealistic optimism studies investigating Unbiased responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism for purely Optimistic” in their judgments of risk concerning future life events.
Themselves than to the average person, a behavior interpreted as showing that people are “unrealistically This article is intended solely for the personal use of the individual user and is not to be disseminated broadly.Ī robust finding in social psychology is that people judge negative events as less likely to happen to This document is copyrighted by the American Psychological Association or one of its allied publishers. Unrealistic Optimism About Future Life Events: A Cautionary Note
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